The 85th Academy Awards are this coming Sunday, and this is the first year where I feel comfortable actually making predictions on the major awards as I have seen the majority of the films with nominations.
Of the 28 total major motion films up for awards, not counting short films, foreign films or documentaries, I have seen 13 of them, including 6 of the 9 films up for Best Picture. This truly has been a year where I branched out and have seen more films that I generally would not normally see.
What we are going to go over on here is the most likely winner of the major awards, who I feel should win, and if there is a possible outside darkhorse candidate in the major categories.
Who Will Win: ‘Lincoln’
Who Should Win: ‘Argo’
Of the 9 Best Picture nominees, I have seen a personal high of 6 of them: ‘Argo’, ‘Django Unchained’, ‘Les Miserables’, ‘Lincoln’, ‘Silver Linings Playbook’ and ‘Zero Dark Thirty’. The 3 that I have not seen are ‘Amour’, ‘Beasts of the Southern Wild’ and ‘Life of Pi’. Of the 3 that I have not seen, I view ‘Amour’, a French film that is also nominated for Best Foreign Language Film, as the only possible film out of those three that could upset the others to win Best Picture.
Of the 6 films that I have seen, I would say that ‘Argo’ and ‘Lincoln’ are the two front-runners. ‘Lincoln’ carries a lot of historical importance and also a performance that is a runaway winner of another major award for this coming weekend. ‘Argo’ is easily the best picture that I saw in 2012, and after picking up wins at almost every other award ceremony this year, is considered the favourite to win Best Picture.
Who Will Win: Steven Spielberg, ‘Lincoln’
Who Should Win: Ben Affleck, ‘Argo’
Darkhorse: Ang Lee, ‘Life of Pi’
This is the one category where I absolutely, positively, 100% believe that the Academy got it wrong. Not including Ben Affleck in this category for directing ‘Argo’ is mind boggling, especially considering he has won Best Director or its equivalent at almost EVERY SINGLE OTHER awards ceremony this year.
As a result of that, the shoo-in winner of Best Director will end up being Steven Spielberg for ‘Lincoln’. The story of the passing of the 13th Amendment to the United States Constitution will be a heavy favourite with Academy voters, and this will act almost like a Lifetime Achievement Award for Spielberg. The darkhorse in this category will be Ang Lee for ‘Life of Pi’, a story that many always considered unfilmable.
Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, ‘Lincoln”
Who Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, ‘Lincoln’
Darkhorse: Hugh Jackman, ‘Les Miserables’
I don’t believe there has been a bigger lock for an award since ‘Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King’ won Best Picture in 2003 than Daniel Day-Lewis for Best Actor for his portrayal of Abraham Lincoln in ‘Lincoln’ this year. As an outside darkhorse, I could see Hugh Jackman carrying enough of a presence for his role as Jean Valjean in ‘Les Miserables’ to possibly pull off an upset.
Who Will Win: Jessica Chastain, ‘Zero Dark Thirty’
Who Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence, ‘Silver Linings Playbook’
Darkhorse: Quvenzhane Wallis, “Beasts of the Southern Wild’
This is quite possibly the most wide open major category at this year’s Academy Awards. There really is not one or two clear front-runners for Best Actress, and if there is going to be a darkhorse winner, it will be in this category. Depending on who you talk to, each of the 5 nominees have a legitimate shot at winning, but with all the hype surrounding ‘Zero Dark Thirty’, I would not be surprised to see Jessica Chastain win.
That being said, I would vote for Jennifer Lawrence for her role in ‘Silver Linings Playbook’, and there is a lot of support for that as well. Naomi Watts is getting lots of support for the physical role she had in ‘The Impossible’, and the Best Actress category also as its oldest and youngest nominees ever , and you never know just how the Academy will vote.
Who Will Win: Brave
Who Should Win: Wreck-it Ralph
Animation is always a tough category to pick a winner, especially after it was branched out to a full 5 film category, but this year it really comes down to just 2 choices, both from Disney: ‘Brave’ from Pixar and ‘Wreck-It Ralph’ from Disney themselves. Both films were visually stunning, but the clear choice for me to win this award is ‘Wreck-It Ralph’ due to the great story and the premise of a video arcade where the characters come to life, but that is also the primary reason why I think it won’t actually win.
The average age of Academy voters is 60 years of age and as a result most of them have probably never seen the inside of a video arcade, and as a result ‘Brave’ will more than likely win Best Animated Film.
Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, ‘The Master’
Who Should Win: Christoph Waltz, ‘Django Unchained’
Darkhorse: Alan Arkin, ‘Argo’
The Best Supporting Actor category is possibly the second toughest category to predict this year. All 5 nominees are former Academy Award winners, and 4 of them have previously won Best Supporting Actor before. Because of that, I have a feeling the Academy will give the award to the one nominee who has never won before, Philip Seymour Hoffman. Hoffman is a three time nominee now for Best Supporting Actor and that always is a consideration for voters.
Christoph Waltz is my hands down choice for this category, as his turn in ‘Django Unchained’ was probably the best part of the movie, and that is truly saying a lot with how good it actually was. The fact that he won just three years ago for his breakout role in another Quentin Tarantino film, ‘Inglorious Basterds’ could hurt Waltz this year. If ‘Argo’ is going to have a stellar night, you could see Alan Arkin surprise in this category as well.
Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: Anne Hathaway, ‘Les Miserables’
Who Should Win: Anne Hathaway, ‘Les Miserables’
Darkhorse: Sally Field, ‘Lincoln’
Right up there with Daniel Day-Lewis for Best Actor, this category should be a runaway victory for Anne Hathaway. I don’t know a world where she shouldn’t win, but I said the same about Ben Affleck being nominated for Best Director, so we could still be surprised here. Hathaway’s role in ‘Les Miserables’ may have been short, but it was definitely sweet and showed just how terrific of a young actress she actually is.
Much like the Best Supporting Actor category, if ‘Lincoln’ is going to be on a role on this night, look for Sally Field to pull an upset in this category.
For all this and more, feel free to follow me on Twitter at @kymayer. Cheers.